2025 Grammy predictions: Official odds favor Beyoncé, Sabrina Carpenter, Chappell Roan
Beyoncé, Sabrina Carpenter, and Chappell Roan will be among the top winners at the 2025 Grammys on Sunday, according to the official Gold Derby odds.
The night’s top prize, Album of the Year, will finally go to Beyoncé, based on our latest projections. She has lost four times before, often controversially, to the point that her husband, Jay-Z, called out the Recording Academy onstage while accepting his Dr. Dre Global Impact Award at last year’s show. When her Lemonade lost to Adele‘s 25 in 2017, even Adele admitted in her acceptance speech that Beyoncé deserved the prize. But beware: Beyoncé was the frontrunner in our odds the last three times she lost, and this year she has especially tough competition from Billie Eilish (Hit Me Hard and Soft) and Roan (The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess). See the full category odds below.
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Aside from Album of the year, Beyoncé is tipped to win in three other categories: Best Melodic Rap Performance (“Spaghettii” featuring Linda Martell and Shaboozey), Best Country Solo Performance (“16 Carriages”), and Best Country Duo/Group Performance (“II Most Wanted” featuring Miley Cyrus). Those four awards would bring her lifetime total to 36, extending her record as the most honored individual in Grammy history. But one of her 11 total nominations this year isn’t in our predictions center: Best Americana Performance (“Ya Ya”). If she claims that category, too, she’ll have 37 trophies.
Carpenter has six noms this year, and is predicted to win three: Record of the Year and Best Pop Solo Performance for her inescapable bop “Espresso” and Best Pop Vocal Album for Short n’ Sweet. Best New Artist is shaping up to be a nail-biter between her and Roan, but Roan is expected to prevail there in addition to claiming Song of the Year for her breakout hit, “Good Luck, Babe!” The likely female sweep of the general field, alas, will leave Kendrick Lamar shut out of the top categories once again; but he is the odds-on favorite to win three races he has prevailed in before: Best Rap Performance, Best Rap Song, and Best Music Video, all for his blistering diss track “Not Like Us.”
Other multiple winners we’re anticipating include St. Vincent and Fontaines DC, who are favored to take home two awards apiece in the rock and alternative categories. SZA and Muni Long are predicted to split up the R&B categories. And though recent Oscar nominee Ariana Grande under-performed in the Grammy nominations, she does have best odds to win one of her three bids: Best Dance Pop Recording for “Yes, And?”
See who else is in our forecast for Sunday below:
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ALBUM OF THE YEAR
Beyoncé, Cowboy Carter — 5/1
Billie Eilish, Hit Me Hard and Soft — 11/2
Chappell Roan, The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess — 11/2
Sabrina Carpenter, Short n’ Sweet — 15/2
Taylor Swift, The Tortured Poets Department — 15/2
Charli XCX, Brat — 8/1
André 3000, New Blue Sun — 19/2
Jacob Collier, Djesse Vol. 4 — 21/2
RECORD OF THE YEAR
Sabrina Carpenter, “Espresso” — 4/1
Billie Eilish, “Birds of a Feather” — 11/2
Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us” — 7/1
Chappell Roan, “Good Luck, Babe!” — 15/2
The Beatles, “Now and Then” — 8/1
Beyoncé, “Texas Hold ‘Em” — 8/1
Taylor SWift feat. Post Malone, “Fortnight” — 10/1
Charli XCX, “360” — 10/1
SONG OF THE YEAR
Chappell Roan, “Good Luck, Babe!” — 5/1
Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile” — 11/2
Billie Eilish, “Birds of a Feather” — 11/2
Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us” — 15/2
Beyoncé, “Texas Hold ‘Em” — 8/1
Sabrina Carpenter, “Please Please Please” — 8/1
Taylor Swift feat. Post Malone, “Fortnight” — 19/2
Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” — 11/1
BEST NEW ARTIST
Chappell Roan — 9/2
Sabrina Carpenter — 9/2
Raye — 15/2
Benson Boone — 8/1
Shaboozey — 8/1
Doechii — 17/2
Teddy Swims — 17/2
Khruangbin — 23/2
BEST POP SOLO PERFORMANCE
Sabrina Carpenter, “Espresso”
BEST POP DUO/GROUP PERFORMANCE
Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile”
BEST POP VOCAL ALBUM
Sabrina Carpenter, Short n’ Sweet
BEST DANCE/ELECTRONIC RECORDING
Fred Again and Baby Keem, “Leavemealone”
BEST DANCE POP RECORDING
Ariana Grande, “Yes, And?”
BEST DANCE/ELECTRONIC ALBUM
Charli XCX, Brat
BEST ROCK PERFORMANCE
The Beatles, “Now and Then”
BEST ROCK SONG
St. Vincent, “Broken Man”
BEST ROCK ALBUM
Fontaines DC, Romance
BEST ALTERNATIVE MUSIC PERFORMANCE
Fontaines DC, “Starburster”
BEST ALTERNATIVE MUSIC ALBUM
St. Vincent, All Born Screaming
BEST R&B PERFORMANCE
SZA, “Saturn”
BEST TRADITIONAL R&B PERFORMANCE
Muni Long, “Make Me Forget”
BEST R&B SONG
SZA, “Saturn”
BEST R&B ALBUM
Muni Long, Revenge
BEST PROGRESSIVE R&B ALBUM
Kehlani, Crash
BEST RAP PERFORMANCE
Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”
BEST MELODIC RAP PERFORMANCE
Beyoncé feat. Linda Martell and Shaboozey, “Spaghettii”
BEST RAP SONG
Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”
BEST RAP ALBUM
Metro Boomin and Future, We Don’t Trust You
BEST COUNTRY SOLO PERFORMANCE
Beyoncé, “16 Carriages”
BEST COUNTRY DUO/GROUP PERFORMANCE
Beyoncé feat. Miley Cyrus, “II Most Wanted”
BEST COUNTRY SONG
Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)”
BEST COUNTRY ALBUM
Chris Stapleton, Higher
BEST MUSICA URBANA ALBUM
Bad Bunny, Nadie Sabe Lo Que Va a Pasar Ma?ana
BEST LATIN POP ALBUM
Shakira, Las Mujeres Ya No Lloran
BEST COMEDY ALBUM
Dave Chappelle, The Dreamer
BEST AUDIO BOOK, NARRATION, AND STORYTELLING
Jimmy Carter, Last Sundays in Plains: A Centennial Celebration
BEST MUSIC VIDEO
Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us”
BEST MUSICAL THEATER ALBUM
Hell’s Kitchen
BEST VISUAL MEDIA COMPILATION
The Color Purple
BEST VISUAL MEDIA SCORE
Challengers
BEST VISUAL MEDIA SONG
“It Never Went Away” from American Symphony
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