2025 Emmy odds: The early state of the race in comedy, drama, and limited series
Hacks, Shōgun, and Baby Reindeer may still be collecting awards for their previous installments (or in the last one's case, only one), but the 2024-25 Emmy season is nearly three-quarters over.
Only Hacks of the aforementioned trio will be eligible to defend its series crown at this year's 77th Primetime Emmy Awards, whose eligibility period ends May 31. Shōgun has not filmed its second season yet, and Baby Reindeer, of course, is a limited series. But there are lots of old Emmy favorites back in the mix and several new players that could make a splash.
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Here's where the three series races currently stand in Gold Derby early Emmy odds.
Jake Giles Netter/Max
Best Comedy Series
1. Hacks — 19/5
2. The Bear — 6/1
3. Only Murders in the Building — 7/1
4. Nobody Wants This — 7/1
5. Abbott Elementary — 15/2
6. Shrinking — 19/2
7. The Studio — 15/1
8. What We Do in the Shadows — 18/1
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9. Wednesday — 30/1
10. A Man on the Inside — 62/1
11. Agatha All Along — 90/1
12. Somebody Somewhere — 100/1
13. Poker Face — 100/1
14. English Teacher — 100/1
15. St. Denis Medical — 100/1
Defending champ Hacks, naturally, leads the odds. After its upset over The Bear last year, the Max comedy has dominated the winter circuit, winning every Best Comedy Series prize. Season 4, which is in production, ought to arrive in May once again. The Bear, which is competing for its divisive third season, will likely drop its fourth season in June, which would be eligible at the 2026 Emmys. But if Season 4 is a return to form, that could boost Season 3's win chances in Phase 2 this summer.
Abbott Elementary, Only Murders in the Building, What We Do in the Shadows, the last of which is competing for its final season, ought to retain their slots. Shrinking got acting bids for Jason Segel and Jessica Williams for Season 1 and likely just missed out on a series bid, but with three open slots in the lineup of eight, a well-received sophomore season, and a maiden ensemble nomination at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, the Apple TV+ series is looking good to secure a spot.
Two freshmen series are expected to make the cut. Nobody Wants This was a breakout hit for Netflix in the fall and netted three Golden Globe nominations and a Critics Choice win for Adam Brody. However, the rom-com has struggled with the guilds, missing SAG ensemble and comedy series bids at the Producers Guild of America, Directors Guild of America, and Writers Guild of America Awards. Still, its early release and high visibility ought to land it a slot and explain its high ranking in the odds.
Meanwhile, Apple TV+'s The Studio arrives on March 26, but expectations are high for the Seth Rogen-created comedy, in which he plays the new head of a movie studio. There'll be lots of inside baseball stuff the industry can appreciate, and the show is stacked with celebrities guest-starring as themselves, including Martin Scorsese, Ron Howard, Charlize Theron, Anthony Mackie, Olivia Wilde, Zo? Kravitz, Zac Efron, Adam Scott, and Paul Dano. Apple TV+ has never gotten more than one show nominated for comedy series in the same year (Ted Lasso in 2021-23, Palm Royale in 2024), so a Shrinking-The Studio double would break new ground.
Former nominee Wednesday is just outside in ninth place, but Season 2 doesn't have a premiere date yet, so it could miss another Emmy cycle. The same goes for Poker Face, which won a guest Emmy for Judith Light for Season 1. Several softer first-year shows are angling for a spot, but they all might have better luck in other categories.
Apple TV+
Best Drama Series
1. Severance — 9/2
2. The Last of Us — 11/2
3. The White Lotus — 11/2
4. Slow Horses — 8/1
5. The Diplomat — 17/2
6. The Day of the Jackal — 13/1
7. Andor — 25/1
8. Paradise — 25/1
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9. Squid Game — 30/1
10. The Pitt — 30/1
11. Presumed Innocent — 48/1
12. Stranger Things — 68/1
13. House of the Dragon — 72/1
14. The Handmaid's Tale — 100/1
15. Yellowjackets — 100/1
The Best Drama Series lineup will look almost completely different from last year's. Slow Horses is the only nominee from the 2024 field eligible to return, and the spy series, which won Best Drama Writing, is safe for a spot. There are other former nominees back in the game — just not from last year. Severance finally returned last month with its second season after three long years, and it's no surprise that it's holding down the No. 1 spot in the odds at the moment. The season's been positively received by fans and critics alike, it's currently airing, and has dethroned Ted Lasso as Apple TV+'s most-watched series.
But two other past Emmy faves are hot on its heels. Anticipation is high for Season 2 of The Last of Us, premiering April 13, which adapts The Last of Us Part II game and introduces Kaitlyn Dever's Abby (iykyk). Season 1 took home eight Emmys: six below the line and a sweep of the drama guest categories for Nick Offerman and Storm Reid, showing across-the-board support. It went home empty-handed at the main ceremony, blocked by Succession in its categories, but Waystar-Royco is no longer around. Similarly, after dominating the limited categories for Season 1, The White Lotus was foiled by Succession in the main drama categories outside of supporting actress Jennifer Coolidge for Season 2. Season 3 just started, so don't be shocked if The White Lotus moves up from third place in the odds. Of note: All three of Severance, The Last of Us, and The White Lotus have never competed against each other at the Emmys.
The Diplomat earned a sole nomination for Keri Russell for Season 1, but it's on track for a series breakthrough for Season 2 after hitting PGA, DGA, WGA, and SAG ensemble. Russell and Season 2 guest star Allison Janney made SAG's single TV drama actress category. Peacock hopes to score its first scripted series bid with The Day of the Jackal, a SAG ensemble nominee. Past nominee Andor returns with its second and final season on April 22 and sits in seventh place, one spot ahead of Paradise. The Dan Fogelman drama, which wraps its first season on March 4 and has been renewed, aims to be the first non-Handmaid's Tale drama series nominee for Hulu. Speaking of The Handmaid's Tale, the 2017 champ, whose final season premieres April 8, is in 14th place. It's not terribly shocking since the drama went from 21 nominations for Season 4 to one for Season 5. Will voters return for the final season or are they just over it?
Right outside the top eight is Squid Game. Season 2 still pulled in tons of eyeballs but might lack the cultural staying power of the first season. And it received zero SAG nominations — not even for stunt ensemble — after winning three out of four categories for Season 1. Former nominees Stranger Things (which might not make eligibility), House of the Dragon, and Yellowjackets are also outside of the the top 10. Season 3 of Yellowjackets, which dipped in noms for Season 2, just premiered. House of the Dragon made the cut for Season 1 on tech support — it had no above-the-line nominations — but it has had a poor tech guild showing this winter. Sitting in 10th place is The Pitt, which has been renewed for a second season and is hoping to be Max's drama equivalent of Hacks. Presumed Innocent is in 11th place, but it might want to try its luck elsewhere (more on that below).
Macall Polay/HBO
Best Limited Series
1. The Penguin — 31/20
2. Disclaimer — 5/1
3. Say Nothing — 15/2
4. Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story — 9/1
5. Dying for Sex — 11/1
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6. Zero Day — 23/2
7. Good American Family — 42/1
8. Black Rabbit — 72/1
9. La Máquina — 100/1
10. Apple Cider Vinegar — 100/1
How do we say this? The limited field this year is, uh, not strong. Unlike the comedy and drama series categories, which are locked at eight spots each, the number of places in limited series can fluctuate depending on the number of submissions. Since this rule was adopted in 2020, there has not been more than five spots in the category, which is unlikely to change this year (and probably for the best). There are not a lot of limited series, let alone series in general, this season. The Penguin is No. 1 with a bullet in the odds. The Batman spin-off series has been a guild fave, making PGA and DGA (triple nominations) and winning WGA. If SAG had an ensemble award for limited series, it would definitely be nominated there too. Alas, it has to make do with individual nominations for Colin Farrell and Cristin Milioti, both Critics Choice champs, with the former also a Golden Globe winner.
In second is Alfonso Cuarón's Disclaimer, starring Cate Blanchett and Kevin Kline, which was far from a massive hit but probably has the prestige — and the wide-open field — to make it in. Say Nothing, FX's adaptation of the book of the same name, is in a similar boat but with fewer A-listers. Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story was a hit and can get by on that alone, but it has underperformed this winter compared to its predecessor Dahmer — Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story. In the fifth spot is FX's Dying for Sex, which premieres on Hulu on April 4. Based on the podcast of the same name, the series stars Michelle Williams as a woman who ends her marriage to explore her sexuality after being diagnosed with Stage IV metastatic breast cancer. The last time Williams starred in an FX limited series, it was nominated for the top prize, and she won the Emmy.
The rest of the top 10 includes a show yet to premiere (Hulu's Good American Family, coming March 19 and starring Ellen Pompeo and Mark Duplass), shows that have premiered but didn't light the world on fire (La Máquina, Apple Cider Vinegar), a just-released show that has not lived up to expectations (Zero Day), and a show that might not make eligibility (Jason Bateman's Black Rabbit). The field is ripe for an out-of-nowhere surprise hit to drop in the spring and ride the wave to the Emmys like Baby Reindeer did last year — but will there be one? Or Presumed Innocent could move to limited since Season 2 will feature a new case and new characters. It was a modest hit last summer and also didn't have a great showing at the winter awards, but that probably won't matter as much in this field.
Emmy nominations will be announced July 15.
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