2024 Emmys Predictions: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2024 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 13 to June 24, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 17. Afterwards, final voting commences on August 15 and ends the night of August 26. The 76th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, September 15, and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.
Click on for more of our previous thoughts on what to expect at the 76th Primetime Emmy Awards.
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The State of the Race
Again, when one considers which season of “The Bear” everyone is actually nominated for, it is hard to argue that the FX series’ current reigning Emmy winners are not due for a repeat. Jeremy Allen White is giving a star-making performance that has resulted in him sweeping just about every awards show he has been nominated at. That level of momentum is hard to beat.
However, a wider look at this year’s Emmy nominations show that “Only Murders in the Building” star Steve Martin had a banner TV season. Not only is this his third nomination in a row in this category for his performance on the hit Hulu murder mystery, but the two-part Apple TV+ documentary about his is nominated for Outstanding Documentary Or Nonfiction Special, and the tricky song he performs in “Only Murders in the Building” Season 3, “Which Of The Pickwick Triplets Did It?,” is nominated for Outstanding Original Music And Lyrics. It really could finally be the comedy icon’s year.
Yet there is still a wrong to right. Creator/star Larry David has not won a single Emmy for “Curb Your Enthusiasm.” The reason for this is likely that writers, who have more of a sway over TV awards, are not quick to celebrate the show’s dialogue being primarily improvised. But why knock the approach when David’s performance has still managed to generate memes and catchphrases that have persisted through the 24 years “Curb” has been on the air. For him to not win really would feel like the TV Academy snubbing one the medium’s living legends.
As for the other nominees, again, it just does not seem like the right timing for Martin Short to win over his “Only Murders in the Building” co-star given the year he has had. “Reservation Dogs” breakout may have a bit of a chance since he is nominated for the final season of the critically beloved show, but this being his first nomination also says that voters have generally been sleeping on the show, and have not caught up with everything the young actor can do.
This being the third time “What We Do in the Shadows” has been nominated for Outstanding Comedy Series, yet star Matt Berry’s first nomination for it more so says that voters have seen his show, but have not previously felt as compelled by his performance for him to make the final nominations list. Not to say he is not an awardsworthy talent though, but him winning would be the biggest surprise.
Nominees are listed in order of their likelihood to win.
Power Rankings:
Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear” (Hulu)
Steve Martin, “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Larry David, “Curb Your Enthusiasm” (HBO)
D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai, “Reservation Dogs” (FX)
Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
Matt Berry, “What We Do in the Shadows” (FX)
Will Win: Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear”
Could Win: Steve Martin, “Only Murders in the Building”
Should Win: Larry David, “Curb Your Enthusiasm”
More Comedy Category Predictions:
Outstanding Comedy Series
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
View IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 76th Emmy Awards.
Last Year’s Winner: Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear”
Still Eligible: Yes.
Hot Streak: Plenty of actors have won the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series twice, even consecutively, so it would be notable for “The Bear” star Jeremy Allen White to win a second year in a row—it just wouldn’t really be a historical moment.
Notable Ineligible Series: Jason Sudeikis, “Ted Lasso” (ended); Bill Hader, “Barry” (ended); Jason Segel, “Shrinking” (Season 2 is not eligible)
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